Backward solver

What does Texas State need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Texas State can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#38 – #38

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5664

If Texas State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#38

RPI 0.5623

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#38

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #38 – P95 #38). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If Texas State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Texas State at #33. Texas State can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Texas AM Regional W R1USC	#33	#38	5

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Texas State need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Texas State can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#38 – #38

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5664

If Texas State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#38

RPI 0.5623

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#38

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #38 – P95 #38). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If Texas State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Texas State at #33. Texas State can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Texas AM Regional W R1USC	#33	#38	5

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Texas State need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Texas State can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#38 – #38

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5664

If Texas State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#38

RPI 0.5623

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#38

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #38 – P95 #38). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If Texas State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Texas State at #33. Texas State can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Texas AM Regional W R1USC	#33	#38	5

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Texas State need?

Out of reachCrack the top 25

Texas State can't crack the top 25 on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#38 – #38

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #25

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5664

If Texas State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#38

RPI 0.5623

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#38

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #38 – P95 #38). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If Texas State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Texas State at #33. Texas State can’t crack the top 25 given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Texas AM Regional W R1USC	#33	#38	5

Try another