Backward solver

What does Virginia need?

Out of reachHost a regional (top 16)

Virginia can't host a regional on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#23 – #23

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

#22

RPI 0.5816

If Virginia wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#23

RPI 0.5787

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#23

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #23 – P95 #23). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#25

RPI 0.5765

If Virginia is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Virginia at #22. Virginia can’t host a regional given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Southern Miss Regional W R1Jacksonville State	#22	#25	3

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Virginia need?

Out of reachHost a regional (top 16)

Virginia can't host a regional on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#23 – #23

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

#22

RPI 0.5816

If Virginia wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#23

RPI 0.5787

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#23

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #23 – P95 #23). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#25

RPI 0.5765

If Virginia is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Virginia at #22. Virginia can’t host a regional given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Southern Miss Regional W R1Jacksonville State	#22	#25	3

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Virginia need?

Out of reachHost a regional (top 16)

Virginia can't host a regional on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#23 – #23

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

#22

RPI 0.5816

If Virginia wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#23

RPI 0.5787

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#23

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #23 – P95 #23). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#25

RPI 0.5765

If Virginia is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Virginia at #22. Virginia can’t host a regional given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Southern Miss Regional W R1Jacksonville State	#22	#25	3

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Virginia need?

Out of reachHost a regional (top 16)

Virginia can't host a regional on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#23 – #23

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

#22

RPI 0.5816

If Virginia wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#23

RPI 0.5787

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#23

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #23 – P95 #23). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#25

RPI 0.5765

If Virginia is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Virginia at #22. Virginia can’t host a regional given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Southern Miss Regional W R1Jacksonville State	#22	#25	3

Try another