Backward solver

What does Texas need?

Locked inHost a regional (top 16)

Texas has clinched a host seed no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#5 – #5

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

RPI 0.6142

If Texas wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6146

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #5 – P95 #5). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6078

If Texas is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

Texas is mathematically locked into a host seed. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #16 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Texas Regional W R1Holy Cross	#5	#7	2

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Texas need?

Locked inHost a regional (top 16)

Texas has clinched a host seed no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#5 – #5

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

RPI 0.6142

If Texas wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6146

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #5 – P95 #5). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6078

If Texas is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

Texas is mathematically locked into a host seed. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #16 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Texas Regional W R1Holy Cross	#5	#7	2

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Texas need?

Locked inHost a regional (top 16)

Texas has clinched a host seed no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#5 – #5

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

RPI 0.6142

If Texas wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6146

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #5 – P95 #5). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6078

If Texas is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

Texas is mathematically locked into a host seed. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #16 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Texas Regional W R1Holy Cross	#5	#7	2

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Texas need?

Locked inHost a regional (top 16)

Texas has clinched a host seed no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#5 – #5

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #16

Win out

RPI 0.6142

If Texas wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6146

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #5 – P95 #5). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6078

If Texas is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

Texas is mathematically locked into a host seed. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #16 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Texas Regional W R1Holy Cross	#5	#7	2

Try another