Backward solver

What does UMBC need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

UMBC can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#212 – #213

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Today

#212

RPI 0.4708

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#212

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #212 – P95 #213). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Out of reach

Winning all 0 remaining games still leaves UMBC at #212. UMBC can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does UMBC need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

UMBC can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#212 – #213

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Today

#212

RPI 0.4708

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#212

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #212 – P95 #213). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Out of reach

Winning all 0 remaining games still leaves UMBC at #212. UMBC can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does UMBC need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

UMBC can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#212 – #213

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Today

#212

RPI 0.4708

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#212

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #212 – P95 #213). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Out of reach

Winning all 0 remaining games still leaves UMBC at #212. UMBC can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does UMBC need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

UMBC can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#212 – #213

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Today

#212

RPI 0.4708

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#212

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #212 – P95 #213). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#212

RPI 0.4708

UMBC has no games left to play.

Out of reach

Winning all 0 remaining games still leaves UMBC at #212. UMBC can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Try another