Backward solver

What does UCF need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

UCF has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#34 – #35

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5674

If UCF wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#35

RPI 0.5655

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#35

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #34 – P95 #35). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If UCF is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

UCF is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Auburn Regional W R1North Carolina State	#33	#38	5

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does UCF need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

UCF has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#34 – #35

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5674

If UCF wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#35

RPI 0.5655

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#35

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #34 – P95 #35). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If UCF is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

UCF is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Auburn Regional W R1North Carolina State	#33	#38	5

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does UCF need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

UCF has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#34 – #35

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5674

If UCF wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#35

RPI 0.5655

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#35

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #34 – P95 #35). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If UCF is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

UCF is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Auburn Regional W R1North Carolina State	#33	#38	5

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does UCF need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

UCF has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#34 – #35

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#33

RPI 0.5674

If UCF wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#35

RPI 0.5655

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#35

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #34 – P95 #35). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#38

RPI 0.5619

If UCF is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

UCF is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	Auburn Regional W R1North Carolina State	#33	#38	5

Try another