Backward solver

What does North Carolina need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

North Carolina has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#4 – #4

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

RPI 0.6165

If North Carolina wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6154

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #4 – P95 #4). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6111

If North Carolina is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

North Carolina is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	North Carolina Regional W R1VCU	#4	#5	1

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does North Carolina need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

North Carolina has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#4 – #4

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

RPI 0.6165

If North Carolina wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6154

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #4 – P95 #4). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6111

If North Carolina is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

North Carolina is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	North Carolina Regional W R1VCU	#4	#5	1

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does North Carolina need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

North Carolina has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#4 – #4

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

RPI 0.6165

If North Carolina wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6154

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #4 – P95 #4). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6111

If North Carolina is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

North Carolina is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	North Carolina Regional W R1VCU	#4	#5	1

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does North Carolina need?

Locked inMake the field (top 64)

North Carolina has clinched the field no matter what happens.

Realistic window

#4 – #4

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

RPI 0.6165

If North Carolina wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

RPI 0.6154

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #4 – P95 #4). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

RPI 0.6111

If North Carolina is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Clinched

North Carolina is mathematically locked into the field. Even losing every remaining game leaves them at #64 or better.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
HFri, May 29	North Carolina Regional W R1VCU	#4	#5	1

Try another