Backward solver

What does Alabama State need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

Alabama State can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#169 – #170

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#158

RPI 0.4945

If Alabama State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#170

RPI 0.4897

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#170

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #169 – P95 #170). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#169

RPI 0.4901

If Alabama State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Alabama State at #158. Alabama State can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Alabama Regional W R1Alabama	#158	#169	11

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Alabama State need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

Alabama State can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#169 – #170

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#158

RPI 0.4945

If Alabama State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#170

RPI 0.4897

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#170

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #169 – P95 #170). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#169

RPI 0.4901

If Alabama State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Alabama State at #158. Alabama State can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Alabama Regional W R1Alabama	#158	#169	11

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Alabama State need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

Alabama State can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#169 – #170

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#158

RPI 0.4945

If Alabama State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#170

RPI 0.4897

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#170

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #169 – P95 #170). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#169

RPI 0.4901

If Alabama State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Alabama State at #158. Alabama State can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Alabama Regional W R1Alabama	#158	#169	11

Try another

Switch teams

Backward solver

What does Alabama State need?

Out of reachMake the field (top 64)

Alabama State can't make the field on the games that are left.

Realistic window

#169 – #170

P5 – P95 across simulated season

Cut line

≤ #64

Win out

#158

RPI 0.4945

If Alabama State wins all 1 remaining games and every other team's results stay frozen.

Today

#170

RPI 0.4897

Current standing with no further games forced.

Likely finish

#170

Median across simulated seasons (P5 #169 – P95 #170). Samples every remaining game using calibrated win probabilities, so competitors stumbling moves the dial.

Lose out

#169

RPI 0.4901

If Alabama State is eliminated as quickly as the bracket allows and others' results stay frozen.

Out of reach

Winning all 1 remaining games still leaves Alabama State at #158. Alabama State can’t make the field given the schedule that’s left.

Where it shifts most

1 games

Date	Opponent	Win →	Loss →	Swing
@Fri, May 29	Alabama Regional W R1Alabama	#158	#169	11

Try another