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RPI from the NCAA .
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Michigan State at Louisville · Diamondwire
Michigan State 0 0 0 0 0 0
Home win-probability curve through the game. 100% 50% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Louisville favored Michigan State favored Louisville 0–3 Louisville 0–5 Louisville 0–6 ▲ 1st· Michigan State batting
· Williams,N grounded out to ss. · McKay,R struck out looking. · Seymour,R popped up to 1b. ▼ 1st· Louisville batting
· Alicea singled to third base, bunt. · Marginal effect on each team's RPI and our-rank position when this single result is removed from the season and the snapshot is recomputed. Positive = the game lifted them; negative = the game cost them.
Date Sunday, February 15, 2026
Venue at Louisville Michigan State 0 0 0 0 0 0
Home win-probability curve through the game. 100% 50% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Louisville favored Michigan State favored Louisville 0–3 Louisville 0–5 Louisville 0–6 ▲ 1st· Michigan State batting
· Williams,N grounded out to ss. · McKay,R struck out looking. · Seymour,R popped up to 1b. ▼ 1st· Louisville batting
· Alicea singled to third base, bunt. · Marginal effect on each team's RPI and our-rank position when this single result is removed from the season and the snapshot is recomputed. Positive = the game lifted them; negative = the game cost them.
Date Sunday, February 15, 2026
Venue at Louisville Louisville 3 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 · 13 0
Louisville
0–7
Louisville 0–9 Michigan State 1–9 Alicea stole second, advanced to third on a throwing error by c.
· Moore walked.
· Moore stole second.
· Slanker reached on a throwing error by p, RBI; Moore advanced to third; Alicea scored.+1 R
· Elam singled through the left side, RBI; Slanker advanced to third; Moore scored.+1 R
· T. Davis reached on a fielder's choice to second base, RBI; Elam out at second 2b to ss; Slanker scored, unearned.+1 R
· Nugent struck out swinging.
· Hisle grounded out to p. 0-3 52% ▲ 2nd· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P struck out looking. 0-3 57% · Bright,N struck out swinging. 0-3 57% · Deckinga,C struck out swinging. 0-3 57% ▼ 2nd· Louisville batting
· Hot singled to left field. 0-3 57% · Baker singled up the middle; Hot advanced to third. 0-3 57% · Baker advanced to second; Hot scored on a wild pitch.+1 R 0-3 57% · Alicea grounded out to p, SAC, bunt; Baker advanced to third. 0-3 57% · Moore singled through the left side, RBI; Baker scored.+1 R 0-3 57% · Moore stole second. 0-3 57% · Slanker grounded out to p; Moore advanced to third. 0-3 57% · Elam flied out to cf. 0-2 56% ▲ 3rd· Michigan State batting
· Oliver,J grounded out to 3b. 0-2 60% · Broski,A struck out swinging. 0-2 60% · Sturgess,I singled to center field. 0-2 60% · Williams,N flied out to rf. 0-2 60% ▼ 3rd· Louisville batting
· T. Davis singled through the right side. 0-2 60% · Nugent popped up to ss. 0-2 60% · Hisle reached on a fielder's choice to first base; T. Davis out at second 1b to ss. 0-2 60% · Hisle stole second. 0-2 60% · Hot struck out swinging, out at first c to 1b. 0-0 51% ▲ 4th· Michigan State batting
· G. Crain to lf for Hisle. 0-0 51% · McKay,R flied out to lf. 0-0 51% · Seymour,R doubled down the lf line. 0-0 51% · Picot,P struck out swinging. 0-0 51% · Bright,N grounded out to 1b unassisted. 0-0 51% ▼ 4th· Louisville batting
· Higgins,N to p for Pikur,L. 0-0 51% · Baker hit by pitch. 0-0 51% · Alicea flied out to lf. 0-0 51% · Moore struck out swinging; Baker stole second. 0-0 51% · Slanker flied out to cf. 0-0 51% ▲ 5th· Michigan State batting
· Deckinga,C struck out swinging. 0-0 51% · Oliver,J struck out looking. 0-0 51% · Broski,A struck out swinging. 0-0 51% ▼ 5th· Louisville batting
· Elam singled up the middle. 0-0 51% · T. Davis grounded out to c; Elam advanced to second. 0-0 51% · Nugent popped up to 1b. 0-0 51% · G. Crain singled to left field, RBI; Elam scored.+1 R 0-0 51% · G. Crain stole second. 0-0 51% · Hot struck out swinging. 0-1 61% ▲ 6th· Michigan State batting
· Sturgess,I walked. 0-1 63% · Williams,N flied out to cf. 0-1 63% · McKay,R lined out to cf. 0-1 63% · Seymour,R flied out to rf. 0-1 63% ▼ 6th· Louisville batting
· Grundman,G to p for Higgins,N. 0-1 63% · Baker flied out to cf. 0-1 63% · Alicea doubled to left center. 0-1 63% · Moore singled to left field, RBI; Alicea scored.+1 R 0-1 63% · Slanker walked; Moore advanced to second. 0-1 63% · Slanker out at second c to 2b, caught stealing; Moore advanced to third. 0-1 63% · Elam walked. 0-1 63% · T. Davis struck out swinging. 0-1 63% ▲ 7th· Michigan State batting
· Shannon to p for Danilowicz. 0-1 65% · Picot,P walked. 0-1 65% · Bright,N flied out to ss. 0-1 65% · Deckinga,C struck out swinging; Picot,P out at second c to 2b, caught stealing. 0-1 65% ▼ 7th· Louisville batting
· Szczepanski to p for Grundman,G. 0-1 65% · Nugent singled up the middle. 0-1 65% · G. Crain hit by pitch; Nugent advanced to second. 0-1 65% · Hot struck out swinging; G. Crain advanced to second; Nugent advanced to third on a wild pitch. 0-1 65% · Baker struck out swinging. 0-1 65% · Alicea singled up the middle, 2 RBI; G. Crain scored; Nugent scored.+2 R 0-1 65% · Moore singled through the right side; Alicea advanced to second. 0-1 65% · Slanker walked; Moore advanced to second; Alicea advanced to third. 0-1 65% · Elam fouled out to rf. 0-2 76% ▲ 8th· Michigan State batting
· Mowry to c for Baker. 0-2 80% · Vorster to p for Shannon. 0-2 80% · Oliver,J walked. 0-2 80% · Broski,A singled through the left side; Oliver,J advanced to second. 0-2 80% · Sturgess,I flied out to cf. 0-2 80% · Broski,A advanced to second; Oliver,J advanced to third on a wild pitch. 0-2 80% · Williams,N walked. 0-2 80% · England to p for Vorster. 0-2 80% · McKay,R grounded out to 1b unassisted, RBI; Williams,N advanced to second; Broski,A advanced to third; Oliver,J scored.+1 R 0-2 80% · Seymour,R struck out swinging. 1-2 68% ▼ 8th· Louisville batting
· Klug,J to p for Szczepanski. 1-2 68% · T. Davis out at first 2b to p. 1-2 68% · Nugent flied out to cf. 1-2 68% · G. Crain walked. 1-2 68% · Hot flied out to lf. 1-0 36% ▲ 9th· Michigan State batting
· Thomas,K pinch hit for Picot,P. 1-0 30% · Thomas,K grounded out to 2b. 1-0 30% · Rice,T pinch hit for Bright,N. 1-0 30% · Rice,T singled to third base. 1-0 30% · Rice,T out at second p to 1b to ss, picked off, caught stealing. 1-0 30% · Murphy,D pinch hit for Deckinga,C. 1-0 30% · Murphy,D walked. 1-0 30% · Oliver,J flied out to rf. 0-0 50% Louisville 3 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 · 13 0
Louisville
0–7
Louisville 0–9 Michigan State 1–9 Alicea stole second, advanced to third on a throwing error by c.
· Moore walked.
· Moore stole second.
· Slanker reached on a throwing error by p, RBI; Moore advanced to third; Alicea scored.+1 R
· Elam singled through the left side, RBI; Slanker advanced to third; Moore scored.+1 R
· T. Davis reached on a fielder's choice to second base, RBI; Elam out at second 2b to ss; Slanker scored, unearned.+1 R
· Nugent struck out swinging.
· Hisle grounded out to p. 0-3 52% ▲ 2nd· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P struck out looking. 0-3 57% · Bright,N struck out swinging. 0-3 57% · Deckinga,C struck out swinging. 0-3 57% ▼ 2nd· Louisville batting
· Hot singled to left field. 0-3 57% · Baker singled up the middle; Hot advanced to third. 0-3 57% · Baker advanced to second; Hot scored on a wild pitch.+1 R 0-3 57% · Alicea grounded out to p, SAC, bunt; Baker advanced to third. 0-3 57% · Moore singled through the left side, RBI; Baker scored.+1 R 0-3 57% · Moore stole second. 0-3 57% · Slanker grounded out to p; Moore advanced to third. 0-3 57% · Elam flied out to cf. 0-2 56% ▲ 3rd· Michigan State batting
· Oliver,J grounded out to 3b. 0-2 60% · Broski,A struck out swinging. 0-2 60% · Sturgess,I singled to center field. 0-2 60% · Williams,N flied out to rf. 0-2 60% ▼ 3rd· Louisville batting
· T. Davis singled through the right side. 0-2 60% · Nugent popped up to ss. 0-2 60% · Hisle reached on a fielder's choice to first base; T. Davis out at second 1b to ss. 0-2 60% · Hisle stole second. 0-2 60% · Hot struck out swinging, out at first c to 1b. 0-0 51% ▲ 4th· Michigan State batting
· G. Crain to lf for Hisle. 0-0 51% · McKay,R flied out to lf. 0-0 51% · Seymour,R doubled down the lf line. 0-0 51% · Picot,P struck out swinging. 0-0 51% · Bright,N grounded out to 1b unassisted. 0-0 51% ▼ 4th· Louisville batting
· Higgins,N to p for Pikur,L. 0-0 51% · Baker hit by pitch. 0-0 51% · Alicea flied out to lf. 0-0 51% · Moore struck out swinging; Baker stole second. 0-0 51% · Slanker flied out to cf. 0-0 51% ▲ 5th· Michigan State batting
· Deckinga,C struck out swinging. 0-0 51% · Oliver,J struck out looking. 0-0 51% · Broski,A struck out swinging. 0-0 51% ▼ 5th· Louisville batting
· Elam singled up the middle. 0-0 51% · T. Davis grounded out to c; Elam advanced to second. 0-0 51% · Nugent popped up to 1b. 0-0 51% · G. Crain singled to left field, RBI; Elam scored.+1 R 0-0 51% · G. Crain stole second. 0-0 51% · Hot struck out swinging. 0-1 61% ▲ 6th· Michigan State batting
· Sturgess,I walked. 0-1 63% · Williams,N flied out to cf. 0-1 63% · McKay,R lined out to cf. 0-1 63% · Seymour,R flied out to rf. 0-1 63% ▼ 6th· Louisville batting
· Grundman,G to p for Higgins,N. 0-1 63% · Baker flied out to cf. 0-1 63% · Alicea doubled to left center. 0-1 63% · Moore singled to left field, RBI; Alicea scored.+1 R 0-1 63% · Slanker walked; Moore advanced to second. 0-1 63% · Slanker out at second c to 2b, caught stealing; Moore advanced to third. 0-1 63% · Elam walked. 0-1 63% · T. Davis struck out swinging. 0-1 63% ▲ 7th· Michigan State batting
· Shannon to p for Danilowicz. 0-1 65% · Picot,P walked. 0-1 65% · Bright,N flied out to ss. 0-1 65% · Deckinga,C struck out swinging; Picot,P out at second c to 2b, caught stealing. 0-1 65% ▼ 7th· Louisville batting
· Szczepanski to p for Grundman,G. 0-1 65% · Nugent singled up the middle. 0-1 65% · G. Crain hit by pitch; Nugent advanced to second. 0-1 65% · Hot struck out swinging; G. Crain advanced to second; Nugent advanced to third on a wild pitch. 0-1 65% · Baker struck out swinging. 0-1 65% · Alicea singled up the middle, 2 RBI; G. Crain scored; Nugent scored.+2 R 0-1 65% · Moore singled through the right side; Alicea advanced to second. 0-1 65% · Slanker walked; Moore advanced to second; Alicea advanced to third. 0-1 65% · Elam fouled out to rf. 0-2 76% ▲ 8th· Michigan State batting
· Mowry to c for Baker. 0-2 80% · Vorster to p for Shannon. 0-2 80% · Oliver,J walked. 0-2 80% · Broski,A singled through the left side; Oliver,J advanced to second. 0-2 80% · Sturgess,I flied out to cf. 0-2 80% · Broski,A advanced to second; Oliver,J advanced to third on a wild pitch. 0-2 80% · Williams,N walked. 0-2 80% · England to p for Vorster. 0-2 80% · McKay,R grounded out to 1b unassisted, RBI; Williams,N advanced to second; Broski,A advanced to third; Oliver,J scored.+1 R 0-2 80% · Seymour,R struck out swinging. 1-2 68% ▼ 8th· Louisville batting
· Klug,J to p for Szczepanski. 1-2 68% · T. Davis out at first 2b to p. 1-2 68% · Nugent flied out to cf. 1-2 68% · G. Crain walked. 1-2 68% · Hot flied out to lf. 1-0 36% ▲ 9th· Michigan State batting
· Thomas,K pinch hit for Picot,P. 1-0 30% · Thomas,K grounded out to 2b. 1-0 30% · Rice,T pinch hit for Bright,N. 1-0 30% · Rice,T singled to third base. 1-0 30% · Rice,T out at second p to 1b to ss, picked off, caught stealing. 1-0 30% · Murphy,D pinch hit for Deckinga,C. 1-0 30% · Murphy,D walked. 1-0 30% · Oliver,J flied out to rf. 0-0 50% 
