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RPI from the NCAA .
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Michigan State at Louisville · Diamondwire
Michigan State 0 0 0 0 2 0
Home win-probability curve through the game. 100% 50% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Louisville favored Michigan State favored Louisville 0–1 Michigan State 2–1 Michigan State 3–1 ▲ 1st· Michigan State batting
· Williams,N struck out looking. · McKay,R grounded out to 1b unassisted. · Seymour,R fouled out to 1b. ▼ 1st· Louisville batting
Marginal effect on each team's RPI and our-rank position when this single result is removed from the season and the snapshot is recomputed. Positive = the game lifted them; negative = the game cost them.
Date Friday, February 13, 2026
Venue at Louisville Michigan State 0 0 0 0 2 0
Home win-probability curve through the game. 100% 50% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Louisville favored Michigan State favored Louisville 0–1 Michigan State 2–1 Michigan State 3–1 ▲ 1st· Michigan State batting
· Williams,N struck out looking. · McKay,R grounded out to 1b unassisted. · Seymour,R fouled out to 1b. ▼ 1st· Louisville batting
Marginal effect on each team's RPI and our-rank position when this single result is removed from the season and the snapshot is recomputed. Positive = the game lifted them; negative = the game cost them.
Date Friday, February 13, 2026
Venue at Louisville Louisville 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 0
Louisville
3–3
Michigan State 4–3 Alicea flied out to lf.
· Nugent struck out swinging. 0-0 52% ▲ 2nd· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P hit by pitch. 0-0 52% · Bright,N fouled out to 2b. 0-0 52% · Deckinga,C flied out to lf. 0-0 52% · Oliver,J struck out swinging. 0-0 52% ▼ 2nd· Louisville batting
· T. Davis struck out swinging. 0-0 52% · Elam doubled to left center. 0-0 52% · Slanker doubled to right center, RBI; Elam scored.+1 R 0-0 52% · Hot reached on a fielder's choice to second base; Slanker out at third 2b to 3b. 0-0 52% · Hisle walked; Hot advanced to second. 0-0 52% · G. Crain reached on a fielder's choice to shortstop; Hisle out at second ss to 2b. 0-1 54% ▲ 3rd· Michigan State batting
· Broski,A walked. 0-1 56% · Broski,A out at first c to 1b, picked off. 0-1 56% · Rice,T struck out swinging. 0-1 56% · Williams,N singled through the left side. 0-1 56% · McKay,R hit by pitch; Williams,N advanced to second. 0-1 56% · Seymour,R struck out swinging. 0-1 56% ▼ 3rd· Louisville batting
· Moore flied out to lf. 0-1 56% · Alicea grounded out to 2b. 0-1 56% · Nugent grounded out to 2b. 0-0 51% ▲ 4th· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P grounded out to 3b. 0-0 51% · Bright,N hit by pitch. 0-0 51% · Bright,N advanced to second on a passed ball. 0-0 51% · Deckinga,C struck out swinging, out at first c to 1b. 0-0 51% · Oliver,J struck out looking. 0-0 51% ▼ 4th· Louisville batting
· T. Davis doubled down the rf line. 0-0 51% · Elam grounded out to 2b; T. Davis advanced to third. 0-0 51% · Slanker reached on a fielder's choice to shortstop, advanced to second on the throw; T. Davis out at third ss to c to 3b. 0-0 51% · Hot hit by pitch. 0-0 51% · Hisle grounded out to 1b unassisted. 0-0 51% ▲ 5th· Michigan State batting
· Broski,A singled through the right side. 0-0 51% · Rice,T popped up to 3b, bunt. 0-0 51% · J. Brown to p for Eberle. 0-0 51% · Williams,N hit by pitch; Broski,A advanced to second. 0-0 51% · McKay,R grounded out to 1b unassisted; Williams,N advanced to second; Broski,A advanced to third. 0-0 51% · Seymour,R singled to left field, 2 RBI; Williams,N scored; Broski,A scored.+2 R 0-0 51% · Seymour,R out at second c to 2b, caught stealing. 2-0 34% ▼ 5th· Louisville batting
· G. Crain grounded out to 2b. 2-0 36% · Moore struck out looking. 2-0 36% · Alicea grounded out to ss. 2-0 36% ▲ 6th· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P hit by pitch. 2-0 29% · Bright,N struck out swinging. 2-0 29% · Deckinga,C grounded out to 2b; Picot,P advanced to second. 2-0 29% · Oliver,J grounded out to ss. 0-0 51% ▼ 6th· Louisville batting
· Higgins,N to p for Donovan,A. 0-0 51% · Nugent flied out to rf. 0-0 51% · T. Davis grounded out to ss. 0-0 51% · Elam struck out swinging. 0-0 51% ▲ 7th· Michigan State batting
· Murphy to p for J. Brown. 0-0 50% · Broski,A homered to left field, RBI.+1 R 0-0 50% · Rice,T struck out swinging, out at first c to 1b. 0-0 50% · Williams,N flied out to cf. 0-0 50% · McKay,R grounded out to ss. 1-0 35% ▼ 7th· Louisville batting
· Slanker homered to left center, RBI.+1 R 1-0 38% · Hot singled through the right side. 1-0 38% · Hot stole second. 1-0 38% · Hisle struck out swinging. 1-0 38% · G. Crain struck out swinging. 1-0 38% · Moore singled to right center, RBI; Hot scored.+1 R 1-0 38% · Moore stole second. 1-0 38% · Alicea walked. 1-0 38% · Nugent struck out swinging. 1-2 65% ▲ 8th· Michigan State batting
· Seymour,R homered to left field, RBI.+1 R 1-2 68% · Picot,P struck out swinging. 1-2 68% · Bright,N struck out looking. 1-2 68% · Deckinga,C struck out looking. 1-2 68% ▼ 8th· Louisville batting
· Grundman,G to p for Higgins,N. 1-2 68% · T. Davis singled through the right side. 1-2 68% · Elam flied out to rf; T. Davis advanced to second. 1-2 68% · Slanker struck out swinging. 1-2 68% · Szczepanski to p for Grundman,G. 1-2 68% · Hot struck out swinging. 1-0 36% ▲ 9th· Michigan State batting
· Oliver,J walked. 1-0 30% · Schweitzer to p for Murphy. 1-0 30% · Broski,A flied out to cf. 1-0 30% · Sturgess,I pinch hit for Rice,T. 1-0 30% · Sturgess,I lined into double play 1b unassisted; Oliver,J out on the play. 0-0 50% ▼ 9th· Louisville batting
· Sturgess,I to cf. 0-0 50% · Hisle singled through the left side. 0-0 50% · Ky. Campbell pinch ran for Hisle. 0-0 50% · Ky. Campbell stole second. 0-0 50% · G. Crain struck out swinging. 0-0 50% · Moore struck out looking. 0-0 50% · Alicea flied out to lf. 0-0 50% Louisville 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 0
Louisville
3–3
Michigan State 4–3 Alicea flied out to lf.
· Nugent struck out swinging. 0-0 52% ▲ 2nd· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P hit by pitch. 0-0 52% · Bright,N fouled out to 2b. 0-0 52% · Deckinga,C flied out to lf. 0-0 52% · Oliver,J struck out swinging. 0-0 52% ▼ 2nd· Louisville batting
· T. Davis struck out swinging. 0-0 52% · Elam doubled to left center. 0-0 52% · Slanker doubled to right center, RBI; Elam scored.+1 R 0-0 52% · Hot reached on a fielder's choice to second base; Slanker out at third 2b to 3b. 0-0 52% · Hisle walked; Hot advanced to second. 0-0 52% · G. Crain reached on a fielder's choice to shortstop; Hisle out at second ss to 2b. 0-1 54% ▲ 3rd· Michigan State batting
· Broski,A walked. 0-1 56% · Broski,A out at first c to 1b, picked off. 0-1 56% · Rice,T struck out swinging. 0-1 56% · Williams,N singled through the left side. 0-1 56% · McKay,R hit by pitch; Williams,N advanced to second. 0-1 56% · Seymour,R struck out swinging. 0-1 56% ▼ 3rd· Louisville batting
· Moore flied out to lf. 0-1 56% · Alicea grounded out to 2b. 0-1 56% · Nugent grounded out to 2b. 0-0 51% ▲ 4th· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P grounded out to 3b. 0-0 51% · Bright,N hit by pitch. 0-0 51% · Bright,N advanced to second on a passed ball. 0-0 51% · Deckinga,C struck out swinging, out at first c to 1b. 0-0 51% · Oliver,J struck out looking. 0-0 51% ▼ 4th· Louisville batting
· T. Davis doubled down the rf line. 0-0 51% · Elam grounded out to 2b; T. Davis advanced to third. 0-0 51% · Slanker reached on a fielder's choice to shortstop, advanced to second on the throw; T. Davis out at third ss to c to 3b. 0-0 51% · Hot hit by pitch. 0-0 51% · Hisle grounded out to 1b unassisted. 0-0 51% ▲ 5th· Michigan State batting
· Broski,A singled through the right side. 0-0 51% · Rice,T popped up to 3b, bunt. 0-0 51% · J. Brown to p for Eberle. 0-0 51% · Williams,N hit by pitch; Broski,A advanced to second. 0-0 51% · McKay,R grounded out to 1b unassisted; Williams,N advanced to second; Broski,A advanced to third. 0-0 51% · Seymour,R singled to left field, 2 RBI; Williams,N scored; Broski,A scored.+2 R 0-0 51% · Seymour,R out at second c to 2b, caught stealing. 2-0 34% ▼ 5th· Louisville batting
· G. Crain grounded out to 2b. 2-0 36% · Moore struck out looking. 2-0 36% · Alicea grounded out to ss. 2-0 36% ▲ 6th· Michigan State batting
· Picot,P hit by pitch. 2-0 29% · Bright,N struck out swinging. 2-0 29% · Deckinga,C grounded out to 2b; Picot,P advanced to second. 2-0 29% · Oliver,J grounded out to ss. 0-0 51% ▼ 6th· Louisville batting
· Higgins,N to p for Donovan,A. 0-0 51% · Nugent flied out to rf. 0-0 51% · T. Davis grounded out to ss. 0-0 51% · Elam struck out swinging. 0-0 51% ▲ 7th· Michigan State batting
· Murphy to p for J. Brown. 0-0 50% · Broski,A homered to left field, RBI.+1 R 0-0 50% · Rice,T struck out swinging, out at first c to 1b. 0-0 50% · Williams,N flied out to cf. 0-0 50% · McKay,R grounded out to ss. 1-0 35% ▼ 7th· Louisville batting
· Slanker homered to left center, RBI.+1 R 1-0 38% · Hot singled through the right side. 1-0 38% · Hot stole second. 1-0 38% · Hisle struck out swinging. 1-0 38% · G. Crain struck out swinging. 1-0 38% · Moore singled to right center, RBI; Hot scored.+1 R 1-0 38% · Moore stole second. 1-0 38% · Alicea walked. 1-0 38% · Nugent struck out swinging. 1-2 65% ▲ 8th· Michigan State batting
· Seymour,R homered to left field, RBI.+1 R 1-2 68% · Picot,P struck out swinging. 1-2 68% · Bright,N struck out looking. 1-2 68% · Deckinga,C struck out looking. 1-2 68% ▼ 8th· Louisville batting
· Grundman,G to p for Higgins,N. 1-2 68% · T. Davis singled through the right side. 1-2 68% · Elam flied out to rf; T. Davis advanced to second. 1-2 68% · Slanker struck out swinging. 1-2 68% · Szczepanski to p for Grundman,G. 1-2 68% · Hot struck out swinging. 1-0 36% ▲ 9th· Michigan State batting
· Oliver,J walked. 1-0 30% · Schweitzer to p for Murphy. 1-0 30% · Broski,A flied out to cf. 1-0 30% · Sturgess,I pinch hit for Rice,T. 1-0 30% · Sturgess,I lined into double play 1b unassisted; Oliver,J out on the play. 0-0 50% ▼ 9th· Louisville batting
· Sturgess,I to cf. 0-0 50% · Hisle singled through the left side. 0-0 50% · Ky. Campbell pinch ran for Hisle. 0-0 50% · Ky. Campbell stole second. 0-0 50% · G. Crain struck out swinging. 0-0 50% · Moore struck out looking. 0-0 50% · Alicea flied out to lf. 0-0 50% 
